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Ukraine fighting to liberate Kherson

by admin

A captured Russian artillery gun close to Mykolaiv

There are 4 axes to the Russian invasion of Ukraine: Kyiv/north, Kharkiv/Sumi/northeast, Donbas/east, and Crimea/Kherson south. Yesterday, we took a detailed look to what was occurring in Kyiv and Donbas area. That northeast entrance is lifeless within the water, not a lot occurring. That leaves the south, the place Ukraine is mounting a critical effort to liberate Russian-held Kherson.

Weeks-old captured Russian plans publicly launched by Ukrainian intelligence plans inform us flat-out Russia’s plan for the area: 

On the SE aspect of Mykolaiv. the plan apparently was for 3 VDV BTGs to steer the advance into town, with twentieth GMRD within the rear. Notice the heavy focus of fires items round Pravdyne […]

The north aspect of Mykolaiv was a bit more durable to make out, it seems as if we’ve got at the very least 4 BTGs depicted on this aspect from the thirty fourth and 205th MRBs. District subordinate 227th Artillery and tenth Spetsnaz are to the rear, there’s extra items to the north I can not make out.

A BTG has 600-800 troopers, however as I’ve already written, solely 100-200 of them are literally mounted infantry obtainable for an assault. Seven BTGs would, generously, present round 1,000 troopers and 70 tanks for an assault on a metropolis of almost half 1,000,000. It’s the identical story time and time once more—Russia under-resourced all its axes of assault. Sure, there was a ton of artillery (“fires”), and unsure what Spetsnaz (particular forces) was doing within the rear, however in the long run, this was by no means going to punch by. So it’s no marvel that these items have been decimated, permitting Ukraine to go on the counter-attack. 

Right here’s March 17: 

oldkherson.jpg

Right here’s March 20: 

kherson.jpg
The orange signifies “Russia most likely has it however now we’re not so positive”

We’ve been monitoring that southern entrance rigorously since March 17, when Ukraine dislodged Russian forces alongside a 75 kilometer-swatch of land, ending Russia’s designs on the strategic port metropolis of Odesa. Having given up on Mykolaiv, Russian forces tried to search out one other crossing of the Southern Bug river additional north, however obtained stomped on the gates of Voznesenks (that top-left arrow). Within the subsequent days, Russian forces obtained pushed all the best way all the way down to the city of Posad-Pokroyskote, on the street all the way down to Kherson. Simply as importantly, these upward thrusts towards Kryvyi Rih (I did it! I spelled it with out trying!) had been all halted. 

Since then, it’s been laborious to determine simply precisely what’s being occurring, who managed what, and what Ukraine hopes to perform. Was it sufficient to easily push Russian artillery out of vary of Mykolaiv, giving town a well-deserved breather, or was Kherson the precise purpose? Nicely, because of CNN, now we all know, as they’ve an embedded journalist with Ukrainian forces within the area. 

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In brief, Ukraine has designs on each Kherson’s airfield, and Kherson itself. It’s nicely value watching the report. 

Kherson’s airport has seemingly been emptied out by Russian forces, after Ukrainian artillery wrecked at least 15 helicopters last week (on the bottom video here). In fact, there’s nothing stopping Russia from returning the favor if Ukraine occupies the airport, so it’ll be attention-grabbing to see if they will neutralize Russian artillery—both with counter-artillery (we see Ukrainian artillery in motion within the CNN report above), sabotage by native territorial protection forces in Kherson, the arrival of American Switchblade suicide drones, or different drone assaults. 

Whereas a neighborhood resident was assassinated yesterday for collaborating with the Russians, we haven’t heard a lot about inside resistance for the reason that first few days of occupation. Kherson residents have been content material to stage every day protests, like this one yesterday blocking a Russian truck and forcing it to show round. Nonetheless, that protest led to tragedy as Russian occupiers, their endurance working skinny, opened fire (graphic video). Early reviews acknowledged that 4 individuals had been wounded. 

Russian occupiers have each motive to be on edge. They possible hear Ukrainian artillery getting nearer, they’re getting reviews concerning the nearing enemy. And the locals have made it very clear that they need them gone. There are two methods this may finish—both Russians die in street-to-street combating towards the entirety of Kherson, or they give up to the inevitable and dwell. This isn’t their combat. 

Within the CNN report above, a Ukrainian soldier claims Russian troops are afraid to retreat—anybody falling again will get shot. A “Deputy Commander of the Black Sea Fleet for military-political affairs” died round Mariupol a few days in the past. A number of us chuckled at Russia’s potential to get a high-ranking naval officer killed on land. However a closer look at that title truly paints a much more nefarious image.

Key tasks are the administration of propaganda and counterpropaganda, patriotic schooling, and psychological assist for the armed forces

OMG. This was a man answerable for different guys whose job it’s to shoot battlefield deserters and anybody retreating. I’m going to guess he obtained fragged. Why else would a high-ranking naval officer be wherever siege combating? So if these ghouls are actually in Kherson, and why wouldn’t they be, Russian rank-and-file troops may have to wash some home internally earlier than they will give up. No matter minimizes the bloodshed, let’s hope that’s what occurs. 

When you’re enthusiastic about seeing movies of shredded Russian gear on this area, I’ve obtained some for you here, here, here, here, here, and this one, which claims the Ukrainian Air Power is working within the space. 


Tuesday, Mar 22, 2022 · 12:43:56 PM +00:00

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Mark Sumner

The Ukrainian counter offensive is actual, and it appears to have caught Russian forces flat footed in a number of areas. Standing again and pounding civilian areas with artillery is their plan, however Ukraine isn’t permitting Russia to keep away from a navy vs. navy confrontation.

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Tuesday, Mar 22, 2022 · 12:47:14 PM +00:00

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Mark Sumner

Makariv is nearly straight west of Kyiv. It’s farther from town than the NW suburbs of Irpin and Bucha. It’s seize appears to mirror maps on Saturday that confirmed Ukrainian forces urgent Russian troops close to Kyiv from each east and west.

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Tuesday, Mar 22, 2022 · 12:56:45 PM +00:00

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Mark Sumner

Russian opposition chief Alexey Navalny has been sentenced to 9 years in jail on fees of “fraud” and contempt of courtroom. Navalny has been jailed since he returned to Russia from Berlin in Feb. 2021. Each Navalny and his anti-corruption group have been added to the Russian registry of “extremist and terrorists.”

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Tuesday, Mar 22, 2022 · 1:03:09 PM +00:00

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Mark Sumner

It’s not clear precisely how this is able to assist Russia get round sanctions. Russia might ship North Korea meals. North Korea might ship Russia tips about managing an isolationist kingdom, together with the names of some black market transports keen to maintain Putin in luxurious items whereas everybody else traces up for bread.

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Tuesday, Mar 22, 2022 · 1:18:30 PM +00:00

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Mark Sumner

The Ukrainian authorities has accused Moscow of illegally deporting youngsters from each the Donbas and from Mariupol. These reviews are dependable sufficient that they’re now being echoed by the U.S. embassy in Ukraine, which names them as mass “kidnapping.”

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Stories on Saturday has 1000’s of individuals in and round Mariupol pressured onto buses and brought to Russia. What number of of these had been youngsters isn’t clear.


Tuesday, Mar 22, 2022 · 1:36:57 PM +00:00

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Mark Sumner

European Union seems unlikely to impose an embargo, and even stiffer sanctions, on Russian oil and gasoline. The vocal entrance towards that is Hungary, the place Orban is claiming that the sanctions would “harm Hungary worse than Russia.” Extra quietly, Germany can also be making it clear that it doesn’t assist restrictions on oil and gasoline exports from Russia.

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Tuesday, Mar 22, 2022 · 2:15:35 PM +00:00

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Mark Sumner

Severdonetsk is inside 40 miles of Luhansk and within the space that many maps have instructed Russia has managed from the primary days of the battle. That they’re shelling a hospital in Severdonetsk is a horror, but it surely’s additionally an instance of simply how incomplete Russia’s management is even in areas barely outdoors of the territory underneath their management on the outset of the invasion.

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